Equity Analysis

NASDAQ: TSLA · Consumer Cyclical

Tesla, Inc.

Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and solar products, and is developing autonomous driving technology (Full Self-Driving) and robotics (Optimus humanoid robot). The core automotive business has faced intensifying EV price competition and margin pressure over the past two years, while the stock's valuation increasingly reflects investor expectations for FSD/robotaxi and Optimus optionality rather than the reported automotive financials.

EV automotive AI robotics cyclical
LAST PRICE
$336.87
▼ 2.43 (0.72%) today
52w: $297.38 – $498.83
Market cap $1.3T
P/E ratio 311.9x
Volume 27.1M
Next earnings 2026-01-28
FY2025 — Fiscal Year Ended December 2025
Revenue $94.8B -3.0%
Net Income $3.8B -46.8%
EPS (diluted) $1.08 -51.4%
Operating Margin 5.1% -2.8pp
ROIC 3.8% -3.8pp
4.8
Score /10
Growth ↓
2.5/10
Margins ↓
4.5/10
Fin.Health ↑
7.5/10
Valuation ↓
1.5/10
Dividends ↓
0.0/10
Risks ↓
4.0/10
📑
Financials & ratios
2013–2025 · last column shows CAGR or average
Metric 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CAGR / ø
Growth
Revenue 2,013 3,198 4,046 7,000 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 53,823 81,462 96,773 97,690 94,827 +37.9%/y
Net income -74 -294 -889 -675 -1,962 -976 -870 690 5,524 12,583 14,999 7,130 3,794 –
EPS -0.04 -0.16 -0.46 -0.31 -0.79 -0.38 -0.33 0.24 1.63 3.62 4.31 2.22 1.08 –
Gross margin % 22.66 27.57 22.82 22.85 18.9 18.83 16.56 21.02 25.28 25.6 18.25 17.86 18.03 ø 21.2
Operating margin % -3.04 -5.84 -17.71 -9.53 -13.88 -1.18 0.33 6.32 12.07 16.98 9.19 7.94 5.11 ø 0.5
Profit margin % -3.68 -9.19 -21.96 -9.64 -16.69 -4.55 -3.54 2.19 10.26 15.45 15.5 7.3 4 ø -1.1
ROIC % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.88 14.58 26.87 26.87 7.57 3.77 ø 6.5
Cash
Cash from ops 265 -57 -524 -124 -61 2,098 2,405 5,943 11,497 14,724 13,256 14,923 14,747 +39.8%/y
CapEx -264 -970 -1,635 -1,440 -4,081 -2,319 -1,437 -3,242 -8,014 -7,172 -8,899 -11,342 -8,527 +33.6%/y
Free cash flow 1 -1,027 -2,159 -1,564 -4,142 -221 968 2,701 3,483 7,552 4,357 3,581 6,220 +107.1%/y
FCF yield % 0.01 -3.71 -7.02 -5.07 -8.02 -0.39 1.31 0.4 0.33 1.96 0.55 0.28 0.43 ø -1.5
Balance sheet
Total equity 667 912 1,084 5,905 5,632 6,313 8,110 23,679 31,583 45,898 63,609 73,680 82,865 +49.5%/y
Cur. assets 1,266 3,180 2,782 6,260 6,571 8,307 12,103 26,717 27,100 40,917 49,616 58,360 68,642 +39.5%/y
Cur. liabilities 675 2,107 2,811 5,827 7,675 9,993 10,667 14,248 19,705 26,709 28,748 28,821 31,714 +37.8%/y
Current ratio 1.88 1.51 0.99 1.07 0.86 0.83 1.13 1.88 1.38 1.53 1.73 2.02 2.16 ø 1.5
Debt/equity % 90.97 272.9 267.39 145.43 215.38 219.04 180.06 56.08 28.09 12.52 15.05 18.49 17.76 ø 118.4
Net debt/EBITDA -5.79 12.87 -5.1 13.35 1,736.76 4.22 2.48 -2.11 -1.3 -0.81 -0.87 -0.63 -0.76 ø 134.8
Shareholder & valuation
Dividend / share 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 –
Payout % (DPS/EPS) – – – – – – – 0 0 0 0 0 0 ø 0.0
Shares outst. (M) 1,846 1,885 1,971 2,423 2,532 2,589 2,716 2,880 3,099 3,164 3,185 3,216 3,751 +6.1%/y
Sust. growth % – – – – – – – 0 0 190.36 73.57 22.6 10.22 ø 49.5
P/E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 981.79 188.69 30.64 52.57 182.15 382.24 ø 9.2
EV/EBITDA 395.64 624.99 0 132.87 15,443.77 41.44 37.54 155.88 110.01 21.07 56.79 97.24 129.27 ø 1,326.7
Price / book 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,139.57 29.92 28.28 36.88 37.18 ø 251.7
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Charts
Trends across all years
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Business Overview
What they do & how they make money

Tesla, Inc. was founded in 2003 and built its business under CEO Elon Musk around premium and mass-market electric vehicles (Model S/3/X/Y, Cybertruck), later expanding into energy generation and storage (solar panels, Powerwall, Megapack) and autonomous driving software (Full Self-Driving). The company is also developing the Optimus humanoid robot as a longer-term bet on general-purpose robotics. Tesla's core automotive business has faced intensifying price competition from both established automakers and Chinese EV manufacturers over the past two years, compressing margins and, for the first time in the company's growth history, causing revenue to decline year-over-year.

Revenue by segment
Automotive
85%
Energy Generation & Storage
12%
Services & Other
3%
Revenue
$94.8B
FY2025, -3.0% YoY
Operating Margin
5.1%
FY2025, down from 9.2%
FCF
$6.2B
FY2025
Net Cash
Positive
Net debt/EBITDA -0.76x
ROIC
3.8%
FY2025, down from 26.9% (FY2023)
P/E
382x
FY2025, on declining EPS
⚠ Review due — price has moved outside the last assessed fair-value range
💰
Fair Value
Where does $336.87 sit?
BUY
FAIR
EXPENSIVE
$25 $32 $40 $46+
Below $32 — undervalued
$32–40 — fairly valued
Above $40 — rich
🛡
Risk Assessment
Headwinds vs tailwinds
⚠Revenue has now declined two years running (FY2024 -0.9%, FY2025 -3.0%) after peaking in FY2023 at $96.8B — this is not a one-quarter blip, it's a two-year trend
✓Balance sheet is genuinely strong: net cash position, total debt/equity of just 17.8%, and current ratio of 2.16x — Tesla could weather a prolonged downturn without financial distress
⚠EPS collapsed 75% in two years, from $4.31 (FY2023) to $1.08 (FY2025), as operating margin nearly halved (9.19% to 5.11%) under EV price competition and normalizing regulatory-credit revenue
✓Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technology, if it achieves broad regulatory approval and reliability, represents a large addressable market beyond car sales — the option value is real, even if unproven at scale
⚠At 382x trailing earnings, the stock's valuation has almost no connection to the reported automotive business — it is pricing in FSD/robotaxi/Optimus success that has not yet been demonstrated in revenue
✓Optimus humanoid robot program represents a second major optionality bet, diversifying the long-term thesis beyond automotive
⚠ROIC has fallen sharply (26.9% FY2023 to 3.8% FY2025) — capital efficiency in the core business is deteriorating at the same time the stock is getting more expensive, the opposite of what a sound investment thesis wants to see
✓Energy storage and solar business continues to grow and is not fully captured in this combined dataset — a genuine second segment beyond core auto
⚠No dividend, no buybacks — all capital is being reinvested into a business whose core segment's per-unit economics are currently worsening, not improving
✓Tesla retains the strongest brand and most vertically integrated manufacturing in the EV space, which could matter if the industry consolidates around fewer, stronger players
🔬
Analyst Verdict
Bull case, bear case & final call
Sell
🐂 Bull case
Balance sheet is genuinely strong: net cash position, total debt/equity of just 17.8%, and current ratio of 2.16x — Tesla could weather a prolonged downturn without financial distress
Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technology, if it achieves broad regulatory approval and reliability, represents a large addressable market beyond car sales — the option value is real, even if unproven at scale
Optimus humanoid robot program represents a second major optionality bet, diversifying the long-term thesis beyond automotive
Energy storage and solar business continues to grow and is not fully captured in this combined dataset — a genuine second segment beyond core auto
Tesla retains the strongest brand and most vertically integrated manufacturing in the EV space, which could matter if the industry consolidates around fewer, stronger players
🐻 Bear case
Revenue has now declined two years running (FY2024 -0.9%, FY2025 -3.0%) after peaking in FY2023 at $96.8B — this is not a one-quarter blip, it's a two-year trend
EPS collapsed 75% in two years, from $4.31 (FY2023) to $1.08 (FY2025), as operating margin nearly halved (9.19% to 5.11%) under EV price competition and normalizing regulatory-credit revenue
At 382x trailing earnings, the stock's valuation has almost no connection to the reported automotive business — it is pricing in FSD/robotaxi/Optimus success that has not yet been demonstrated in revenue
ROIC has fallen sharply (26.9% FY2023 to 3.8% FY2025) — capital efficiency in the core business is deteriorating at the same time the stock is getting more expensive, the opposite of what a sound investment thesis wants to see
No dividend, no buybacks — all capital is being reinvested into a business whose core segment's per-unit economics are currently worsening, not improving
Bottom line: Tesla is a Cyclical automaker showing genuine Turnaround-watch characteristics in its core business, priced as if it were a Fast grower. The reported fundamentals have deteriorated for two consecutive years: revenue peaked in FY2023 ($96.8B) and has since declined (FY2024 -0.9%, FY2025 -3.0%), while EPS collapsed from $4.31 to $1.08 — a 75% decline — as EV price competition compressed operating margin from 9.2% to 5.1%. The balance sheet is genuinely strong (net cash, low leverage, current ratio 2.16x), which is the main thing keeping this from being an outright avoid. But at 382x trailing earnings, the stock is not being valued on the automotive business as reported — it's pricing in Full Self-Driving, robotaxi, and Optimus robotics optionality that has not yet generated revenue at scale. That's a legitimate bet for someone who believes in the technology roadmap, but it is speculation on a call option, not an investment in the demonstrated business — the valuation and the fundamentals are moving in opposite directions, which is precisely the setup this methodology exists to flag rather than smooth over.
Key statistics
Price $336.87
Market cap $1.3T
Revenue (latest) $94.8B
Net income $3.8B
Free cash flow $6.2B
EPS (latest) $1.08
P/E ratio 311.9x
EV/EBITDA 129.27x
FCF yield 0.5%
Gross margin 18.0%
Op. margin 5.1%
Net margin 4.0%
ROIC 3.8%
Net debt/EBITDA -0.76x
Next earnings 2026-01-28