Equity Analysis

NYSE: LLY · Healthcare

Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company whose GLP-1 diabetes and obesity drugs — Mounjaro and Zepbound — have driven the fastest revenue growth of any large pharma company in recent history. Beyond GLP-1, Lilly maintains a broad portfolio spanning oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, and is investing heavily in manufacturing capacity to meet what has been unprecedented demand for its metabolic-health franchise.

pharma GLP-1 healthcare dividend high growth
LAST PRICE
$1,225.73
▲ +42.57 (3.60%) today
52w: $685.15 – $1,249.45
Market cap $1.1T
P/E ratio 53.4x
Volume 1.8M
Next earnings 2026-02-04
FY2025 — Fiscal Year Ended December 2025
Revenue $65.2B +44.7%
Net Income $20.6B +95.0%
EPS (diluted) $22.95 +96.0%
Operating Margin 45.6% +7.7pp
ROIC 40.7% +6.9pp
8.0
Score /10
Growth ↑
9.3/10
Margins ↑
9.4/10
Fin.Health →
6.8/10
Valuation ↓
4.8/10
Dividends →
6.5/10
Risks →
6.5/10
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Financials & ratios
2013–2025 · last column shows CAGR or average
Metric 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CAGR / ø
Growth
Revenue 23,113 19,616 19,959 21,222 19,974 21,493 22,320 24,540 28,318 28,541 34,124 45,043 65,179 +9.0%/y
Net income 4,685 2,390 2,408 2,738 -204 3,232 8,318 6,194 5,582 6,245 5,240 10,590 20,640 +13.2%/y
EPS 4.19 2.15 2.18 2.49 -0.19 3.13 8.69 6.47 5.85 6.57 5.8 11.71 22.95 +15.2%/y
Gross margin % 78.76 74.85 74.76 73.09 77.73 78.22 78.85 77.66 74.18 76.77 79.25 81.31 83.04 ø 77.6
Operating margin % 24 16.97 18 17.31 20.03 26.92 25.94 28.36 26.99 29.01 30.26 37.83 45.56 ø 26.7
Profit margin % 20.27 12.19 12.07 12.9 -1.02 15.04 37.27 25.24 19.71 21.88 15.36 23.51 31.67 ø 18.9
ROIC % 19.52 10.88 12.97 12.59 -0.6 20.9 25.67 29.05 28.27 28.34 25.98 33.89 40.74 ø 22.2
Cash
Cash from ops 5,735 4,458 2,965 4,851 5,616 5,524 4,837 6,500 7,366 7,586 4,240 8,818 16,813 +9.4%/y
CapEx -1,093 -1,566 -1,626 -1,092 -2,164 -3,018 -1,354 -2,029 -1,978 -2,985 -7,392 -8,404 -10,849 +21.1%/y
Free cash flow 4,642 2,892 1,338 3,759 3,452 2,506 3,483 4,470 5,388 4,600 -3,152 414 5,964 +2.1%/y
FCF yield % 8.15 3.77 1.44 4.64 3.89 2.11 2.77 2.77 2.05 1.32 -0.6 0.06 0.62 ø 2.5
Balance sheet
Total equity 17,641 15,388 14,590 14,080 11,668 10,909 2,699 5,825 9,155 10,775 10,864 14,272 26,535 +3.5%/y
Cur. assets 13,105 11,928 12,574 15,101 19,202 20,550 13,710 17,462 18,452 18,034 25,727 32,740 55,629 +12.8%/y
Cur. liabilities 8,917 9,741 8,230 10,987 14,536 11,888 11,775 12,482 15,053 17,138 27,293 28,376 35,228 +12.1%/y
Current ratio 1.47 1.22 1.53 1.37 1.32 1.73 1.16 1.4 1.23 1.05 0.94 1.15 1.58 ø 1.3
Debt/equity % 29.55 52.13 54.68 73.19 116.96 94.4 567.49 284.89 184.44 150.7 232.2 235.73 160.18 ø 172.0
Net debt/EBITDA 0.2 0.88 0.86 1.11 1.28 0.4 1.85 1.56 1.42 1.45 1.89 1.62 1.11 ø 1.2
Shareholder & valuation
Dividend / share 1.9 1.89 1.92 1.96 2.08 2.25 2.52 2.81 3.24 3.72 4.52 5.21 6.02 +10.1%/y
Payout % (DPS/EPS) 45.3 87.9 88.1 78.7 – 71.9 29 43.4 55.4 56.6 77.9 44.5 26.2 ø 58.7
Shares outst. (M) 1,117 1,111 1,105 1,101 1,100 1,057 958 957 954 950 899 898 895 -1.8%/y
Sust. growth % 14.84 1.66 1.7 3.48 – 6.82 67.21 50.24 27.7 26.83 10.74 46.94 77.69 ø 28.0
P/E 12.16 32.05 38.67 29.58 0 36.8 15.13 26.08 47.19 55.66 100.05 65.43 46.59 ø 33.8
EV/EBITDA 8.12 16.96 19.26 16.5 16.98 16.62 19.77 21.08 30.09 36.9 46.12 38.45 31.45 ø 24.5
Price / book 3.22 4.46 5.58 4.84 6.09 9.86 22.8 19.16 27.57 32.68 48.07 49.01 38.37 ø 20.9
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Charts
Trends across all years
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Business Overview
What they do & how they make money

Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and has grown into one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. Under CEO David Ricks, Lilly's growth over the past several years has been driven overwhelmingly by its GLP-1 receptor agonist franchise — Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound (the same molecule) for chronic weight management — which has seen unprecedented demand as obesity treatment has become a major pharmaceutical growth category. Beyond metabolic health, Lilly maintains a diversified pipeline across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience (including Alzheimer's treatment Kisunla), and continues to invest heavily in manufacturing capacity to meet GLP-1 demand.

Revenue by segment
GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound)
45%
Other Diabetes/Metabolic
15%
Oncology
15%
Immunology & Neuroscience
15%
Other
10%
Revenue
$65.2B
FY2025, +44.7% YoY
Operating Margin
45.6%
FY2025
FCF
$6.0B
FY2025
Net Debt/EBITDA
1.11x
FY2025
ROIC
40.7%
FY2025
Dividend Streak
14+ yrs
Consecutive raises
💰
Fair Value
Where does $1,225.73 sit?
BUY
FAIR
EXPENSIVE
$900 $1,050 $1,200 $1,380+
Below $1,050 — undervalued
$1,050–1,200 — fairly valued
Above $1,200 — rich
🛡
Risk Assessment
Headwinds vs tailwinds
⚠Leverage has risen meaningfully to fund GLP-1 manufacturing capacity — net debt/EBITDA of 1.11x and total debt/equity of 160% are real obligations, not a net-cash position like several other names covered
✓Revenue nearly doubled in two years ($34.1B FY2023 to $65.2B FY2025, +91%) on genuine, volume-driven GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drug demand (Mounjaro, Zepbound) — not financial engineering or one-time items
⚠Tangible book value has been negative for most of the past decade — the balance sheet carries substantial goodwill/intangibles, similar in kind (though not origin) to the AVGO caveat
✓Margins expanded sharply alongside this growth — gross margin 83.0%, operating margin 45.6%, both multi-year highs — an unusual and strong combination signaling real pricing power and operating leverage, not just top-line growth
⚠Valuation at 46.6x earnings is a genuine premium — durability of GLP-1 demand growth at this rate across a full decade is an open question, not a settled fact
✓ROIC of 40.7% (FY2025) is exceptional and still rising — among the best capital efficiency of any name covered, evidence of a durable moat in its GLP-1 franchise
⚠Competitive GLP-1 entrants (Novo Nordisk's Wegovy/Ozempic, and eventual generic competition after patent expiry) represent a real long-horizon risk to the core growth driver
✓14+ consecutive years of dividend increases, now $6.02/share, with a moderate ~26% payout ratio (down from ~78% in FY2024) leaving room to keep raising it even amid heavy capex
⚠Pharmaceutical companies carry structural regulatory and patent-cliff risk — a single adverse FDA/pricing regulatory decision or earlier-than-expected generic entry could meaningfully impact the growth trajectory this valuation assumes
✓Broad pipeline beyond GLP-1 (oncology, immunology, neuroscience) provides diversification if metabolic-health growth eventually normalizes
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Analyst Verdict
Bull case, bear case & final call
Buy
🐂 Bull case
Revenue nearly doubled in two years ($34.1B FY2023 to $65.2B FY2025, +91%) on genuine, volume-driven GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drug demand (Mounjaro, Zepbound) — not financial engineering or one-time items
Margins expanded sharply alongside this growth — gross margin 83.0%, operating margin 45.6%, both multi-year highs — an unusual and strong combination signaling real pricing power and operating leverage, not just top-line growth
ROIC of 40.7% (FY2025) is exceptional and still rising — among the best capital efficiency of any name covered, evidence of a durable moat in its GLP-1 franchise
14+ consecutive years of dividend increases, now $6.02/share, with a moderate ~26% payout ratio (down from ~78% in FY2024) leaving room to keep raising it even amid heavy capex
Broad pipeline beyond GLP-1 (oncology, immunology, neuroscience) provides diversification if metabolic-health growth eventually normalizes
🐻 Bear case
Leverage has risen meaningfully to fund GLP-1 manufacturing capacity — net debt/EBITDA of 1.11x and total debt/equity of 160% are real obligations, not a net-cash position like several other names covered
Tangible book value has been negative for most of the past decade — the balance sheet carries substantial goodwill/intangibles, similar in kind (though not origin) to the AVGO caveat
Valuation at 46.6x earnings is a genuine premium — durability of GLP-1 demand growth at this rate across a full decade is an open question, not a settled fact
Competitive GLP-1 entrants (Novo Nordisk's Wegovy/Ozempic, and eventual generic competition after patent expiry) represent a real long-horizon risk to the core growth driver
Pharmaceutical companies carry structural regulatory and patent-cliff risk — a single adverse FDA/pricing regulatory decision or earlier-than-expected generic entry could meaningfully impact the growth trajectory this valuation assumes
Bottom line: Eli Lilly is a genuine Fast grower with a rare combination: revenue nearly doubled in two years ($34.1B FY2023 to $65.2B FY2025) on GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drug demand (Mounjaro, Zepbound), while margins expanded sharply at the same time — gross margin hit 83.0% and operating margin 45.6%, both multi-year highs. That combination (accelerating growth AND expanding margins) is unusual and a strong signal of durable, volume-driven demand rather than one-time pricing. ROIC of 40.7% is exceptional. The caveats are real, not cosmetic: leverage has risen meaningfully (net debt/EBITDA 1.11x, debt/equity 160%) to fund the manufacturing capacity buildout required to meet GLP-1 demand, and tangible book value has been negative for most of the past decade. At 46.6x earnings, the stock carries a genuine premium — the central open question is whether GLP-1 demand growth is durable across a full decade against upcoming competitive entrants (Novo Nordisk and eventual generics), not whether the current quarter's numbers are good, which they clearly are.
Key statistics
Price $1,225.73
Market cap $1.1T
Revenue (latest) $65.2B
Net income $20.6B
Free cash flow $6.0B
EPS (latest) $22.95
P/E ratio 53.4x
EV/EBITDA 31.45x
FCF yield 0.5%
Dividend yield 0.49%
DPS $6.02
Div. streak 11+ yrs
Gross margin 83.0%
Op. margin 45.6%
Net margin 31.7%
ROIC 40.7%
Net debt/EBITDA 1.11x
Next earnings 2026-02-04